Putin could attack Nato countries in five to eight years, Germany warns

Vladimir Putin could attack Nato within five to eight years, Germany has warned, as Baltic nations approved a plan to build defences along their borders with Russia and Belarus.

“We have to take into account that Vladimir Putin will one day even attack a Nato country,” said Boris Pistorius, the German defence minister.

“Our experts expect a period of five to eight years in which this could be possible,” he told Der Tagesspiegel, a German newspaper. “At the moment I don’t think a Russian attack is likely.”

Europe is dealing with a “military threat situation … that has not existed for 30 years,” he added. “We hear threats from the Kremlin almost every day – most recently against our friends in the Baltics.”

The Baltic nations are taking steps to increase border security given those increased security concerns after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Bunkers built along borders

Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania on Friday signed an agreement to build bunkers over the next few years to bolster the defences along their borders with Russia and Belarus, a staunch ally of Moscow.

Under the agreement, signed in Riga, the three countries will “construct anti-mobility defensive installations in the coming years to deter and, if necessary, defend against military threats”, the Estonian defence ministry in a statement.

The plan, and Mr Pistorius’s comments, came the day after a top Nato military official warned that civilians in the West must prepare for the possibility of all-out war with Russia in the next 20 years, and be ready to mobilise if necessary.

While various militaries are primed for the outbreak of war, the general public must also be ready for a conflict that would mean a wholesale change in their lives, said Adml Bauer, a Dutch naval officer who chairs the Nato military committee.

“We have to realise it’s not a given that we are in peace,” he said. “And that’s why we [Nato] are preparing for a conflict with Russia.

“But the discussion is much wider. It is also the industrial base and also the people that have to understand they play a role.”

Finland, which became Nato’s latest member when it joined last April, does not see any immediate military threat from Russia, the country’s prime minister said on Friday. “I don’t see any immediate military threat from Russia against Finland,” Petteri Orpo said. “We in Finland sleep peacefully at night, because we are well prepared.”

Middle East threat to global peace

Concerns over global peace have grown, too, as the Israel-Hamas war continues and has begun to spill over in the Middle East.

With Russia’s full-scale war in Ukraine approaching its two-year anniversary, global stockpiles of weapons and ammunition have been whittled down significantly.

Adml Bauer warned that more preparation is needed now to ensure there aren’t shortages of materiel in the future.

“You need to be able to fall back on an industrial base that is able to produce weapons and ammunition fast enough to be able to continue a conflict if you are in it,” he said.

The EU has been unable to deliver on plans to send one million 155mm artillery shells to Kyiv by Februrary, impacting the ability for the Ukrainian military to return fire against the Russians.

Meanwhile, in Washington, US support for Ukraine has ground to a halt in the face of mounting opposition from Republicans.

Europe, said Adm Bauer, must be ready to defend itself if it can no longer count on the US for support.

“We have a nuclear shield with the Americans and the French have the ‘force de frappe’,” Mr Pistorius said, referring to the French nuclear deterrent. “There are no signs that the nuclear shield will evaporate or be dismantled. If this threatens to happen, we as Europeans must deal with it together.”